Dravidian politics centred in Tamil Nadu has become a decisive factor in the government formation at the center since 1996. The fragmentation and high intense regionalisation of national politics have elevated the status of Tamil Nadu based political parties. A state which is well-known for the regionalism has taken advantage over the polarization of national verdicts and maneuvered for more space and say in the day to day affairs of the country. Twelve cabinet berths in the current dispensation reveal the power of politics played by Tamil Nadu.
Radha Venkatesan writes in The Times of India, 10.3.2009,
Get the poll math right in the southern state of Tamil Nadu and grab the gaddi in the capital. At least, verdicts in the last four Lok Sabha elections — since the 1996 polls — have gone the way of national parties that figured out the alliance matrix in this Dravidian land, though it sends only 39 out of the 543 MPs to the Lower House. This time, however, the count looks more complex than ever, confounding even the best alliance engineers. Congress pulled off a sensational arithmetic coup in 2004 by hitching on to the major provincial party, DMK, and emerged winner from nowhere. BJP, on the other hand, tied up with another regional party, AIADMK, and suffered a wash-out. But now, Congress will need a triple trick to repeat the electoral sweep in the Dravidian heartland. While it is sticking to DMK, one-plus-one may not make a winning combination this time. For, clearly the Dravidian citadel is under siege and the hold of the traditional Dravidian parties over the Tamil Nadu's 4.1 crore electorate has steadily slipped under the wobbly feet of their leadership. Visible public disenchantment with the two Kazhagams has spawned electoral space for sub-regional parties. It's not enough for Congress to count solely on DMK — it has to hook the maverick Dr S Ramadoss's Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), a habitual poll-eve camp switcher, whose votebank lies in the Vanniar-dominant north Tamil Nadu and the charismatic political star Vijaykanth's Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), which worked a pan-Tamil spell on his 2006 assembly poll debut, with an 8.33% vote share. Congress, desperate to retain power in Delhi, knows the DMK's sway — hit by inflation, acute power cuts, Karunanidhi's family politics and failing law and order — is waning, perhaps as much as its own, across the country. Hence, for the first time, Congress is directly holding parleys with PMK and DMDK for an electoral tieup. From being the chief architect of the alliance, DMK has conceded the pivotal role to Congress. PMK, which deftly enjoys the double benefits of being ruling party ally and a relentlessly critical opposition, appear to be talking poll business with both the Congress-DMK front and the opposition AIADMK-Left alliance.
Radha Venkatesan writes in The Times of India, 10.3.2009,
Get the poll math right in the southern state of Tamil Nadu and grab the gaddi in the capital. At least, verdicts in the last four Lok Sabha elections — since the 1996 polls — have gone the way of national parties that figured out the alliance matrix in this Dravidian land, though it sends only 39 out of the 543 MPs to the Lower House. This time, however, the count looks more complex than ever, confounding even the best alliance engineers. Congress pulled off a sensational arithmetic coup in 2004 by hitching on to the major provincial party, DMK, and emerged winner from nowhere. BJP, on the other hand, tied up with another regional party, AIADMK, and suffered a wash-out. But now, Congress will need a triple trick to repeat the electoral sweep in the Dravidian heartland. While it is sticking to DMK, one-plus-one may not make a winning combination this time. For, clearly the Dravidian citadel is under siege and the hold of the traditional Dravidian parties over the Tamil Nadu's 4.1 crore electorate has steadily slipped under the wobbly feet of their leadership. Visible public disenchantment with the two Kazhagams has spawned electoral space for sub-regional parties. It's not enough for Congress to count solely on DMK — it has to hook the maverick Dr S Ramadoss's Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), a habitual poll-eve camp switcher, whose votebank lies in the Vanniar-dominant north Tamil Nadu and the charismatic political star Vijaykanth's Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), which worked a pan-Tamil spell on his 2006 assembly poll debut, with an 8.33% vote share. Congress, desperate to retain power in Delhi, knows the DMK's sway — hit by inflation, acute power cuts, Karunanidhi's family politics and failing law and order — is waning, perhaps as much as its own, across the country. Hence, for the first time, Congress is directly holding parleys with PMK and DMDK for an electoral tieup. From being the chief architect of the alliance, DMK has conceded the pivotal role to Congress. PMK, which deftly enjoys the double benefits of being ruling party ally and a relentlessly critical opposition, appear to be talking poll business with both the Congress-DMK front and the opposition AIADMK-Left alliance.
PMK sources say the party may just stick with Congress, only if it is offered more than the five seats it contested and won last time. PMK chief's son and Union health minister Anbumani Ramadoss virtually sent out a fitness certificate to the Congress-led rule, when he cryptically declared that the UPA will return to power. As for Vijaykanth, the new star on the Dravidian horizon, he has just rushed to Chennai for poll preparations after a hectic film shoot in Australia. But Congress leaders claim they are in touch with Vijaykanth's wife's kin. And his party functionaries, hungry for a share of the political pie, are already issuing endorsements for a Congress-DMDK tieup. In the caste-ridden alliance politics of Tamil Nadu, the DMDK's dream of doing an MGR or NTR and taking a lone march to power appears far-fetched. And if he contests alone, he may win no seats and just cut into the anti-establishment votes that could go into the AIADMK-Left kitty. Meanwhile, as BJP's PM candidate L K Advani kickstarted his campaign from Kanyakumari in the southern tip of Tamil Nadu on Sunday, for the first time since 1996, the party is left with no allies.
Though Advani had struck a chord with Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK boss has decided to collaborate with the communists, perhaps fearing erosion of minority votes and also to keep her post-poll options open. While Tamil Nadu's mercurial Amma tried wooing Congress too, she is hoping to lure PMK away from the DMK-fold. With elections approaching, Jayalalithaa, who played the opposition leader through vitriolic statements rather than public protests over the last three years, has announced a fast for the cause of Lankan Tamils. Perhaps, another gameplan to woo the pro-LTTE PMK. Her calculations may run thus: with just MDMK and a Dalit party as allies, she polled 32.64% of votes in the last assembly polls. With the Left parties and possibly the PMK with a 5.65% vote share, her alliance may pull it off comfortably. However, in an election in which alliance arithmetic matters more than chemistry with voters, the winning count will depend on where Vijaykanth and Ramadoss are in the next few weeks — Congress's Sathyamurthy Bhavan or Amma's Poes Garden bungalow. As of now, it may be advantage Congress in the Dravidian landscape.
As long as the two arch-rivals of Tamil politics – Kalaignar and Jayalalitha are alive there is no space for third person or a party in the near future. Vijayakanth and alikes will be withering away with the passing away of time. These two mega stars in the theatre of Indian politics will continue to play a powerful role in the national scene in the coming days.
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