Dragon's Secret Mission

China has been cleverly staging its global image. Without shooting off its mouth unnecessarily Chinese leadership has been on the track in building up its image.

Jaydeva Ranade writes in The Times of India (11 June 2009),

China's chest-thumping at the widely publicised 60th anniversary celebrations of the People's Liberation Army Navy in April was carefully choreographed to demonstrate that it is ready to be acknowledged as a major global power. The confidence stems from the rapid advances in modernising the Chinese armed forces and, more important, the spotlight on China's economic strength at a time when major world powers are struggling with immense domestic economic problems and require Beijing's assistance. China's leadership under Hu Jintao has jettisoned Deng Xiaoping's advice to adhere to the policy of 'taoguang yanghui' or 'lie low, conceal capabilities and bide time' till China achieves its modernisation goals.

This confidence was reflected in the way China publicised the confrontations between its navy and US navy survey ships in recent months in the South China and Yellow Seas. These demonstrated the leadership's willingness to take a tough stand and the navy's ability to confront the US navy. China also marked the anniversary of last year's devastating earthquake in Sichuan with extensive media coverage of the sombre yet elaborate ceremonies held in cities in the country to honour the dead. Nor did Beijing adopt a defensive posture during the sensitive 50th anniversary of the Lhasa uprising. It has decided to display China's accomplishments, strength and international stature. Countries in the neighbourhood, especially those banking on US support, have grasped the significance.

China has for years aspired to be recognised as one of the world's major powers. It recognises that the US will continue to be the dominant world power for the foreseeable future. Its ambition is to exercise what it perceives is its rightful role in international affairs and its perceived sphere of influence, namely the western half of the Pacific Ocean up to the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean. Recognising Beijing's ambition, successive US administrations have for over three decades sought to manipulate this to their advantage.

The first occasion was in 1974 when then US secretary of state Henry Kissinger visited Beijing and met vice-premier Deng Xiaoping. He clarified that the purpose of the visit to India earlier was to counterbalance Soviet influence and "do things in Pakistan without being accused of an anti-Indian motivation". Obliquely referring to clandestine Sino-Pakistani collusion, he added: "One of my colleagues said he was not only in favour of giving arms to Pakistan, but arms and nuclear weapons to Pakistan and Bangladesh." It could not have been coincidence that the US did not protest when China, in 2005, signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Bangladesh, which has abundant resources of natural gas.

The second instance was during Bill Clinton's visit to China as US president in June 1998 when he referred to the possibility of the US and China sharing responsibility in areas of the Asia-Pacific to preserve world peace, including on nuclear non-proliferation. A US presidential statement on South Asia relating specifically to India and Pakistan was issued. It recognised that China would have a say in the final settlement of the Kashmir issue.

The latest instance was US Admiral Timothy Keating's disclosure during his recent visit to New Delhi. He quoted a senior Chinese navy officer as telling him, ostensibly half jocularly, that while developing their aircraft carriers, they could reach an agreement on the US navy taking Hawaii East and the Chinese taking Hawaii West and the Indian Ocean. They would share information and China's navy would save the US the trouble of developing its naval forces west of Hawaii! The proposal reflects long-held Chinese aspirations. While Beijing has denied it, Admiral Keating was surely not hallucinating when he publicised the proposal.

The timing of Admiral Keating's disclosure coincides with Beijing's visibly tougher stance against India. It gives traction to US efforts to entice Saudi Arabia and China to shoulder increased responsibility in Afghanistan and Pakistan, which could include Kashmir. It would be premature to say that the US would allow China a dominant role in the region any time soon, but it is trying to manipulate Chinese aspirations. China has been awaiting such an opportunity as a big step towards achieving its global aspirations and establishing regional dominance.

The US will achieve short-term gains, but the move is fraught with risk for America and the West. It will be impossible to effectively limit China's activities. China will entrench itself in Pakistan, expand influence in Afghanistan and consolidate its position in Central Asia. This will not be in US or Russian interest. The China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation will acquire the potential to oppose the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. Pressure on India to unilaterally yield concessions to Pakistan, especially on Kashmir, will be considerable.

Sino-British collusion in the UN to defer blacklisting of Jaish-e-Mohammad founder Masood Azhar and negligible US reaction to Lashkar-e-Taiba chief Hafiz Saeed's release are worrying signals. The US is also contemplating offering Pakistan a nuclear deal similar to that with India. The consequences for India in the longer term, especially if China partners the US, would be very unwelcome. It would concurrently escalate concern across the region. India needs to formulate a new assertive foreign policy to avoid being marginalised in the region.

whatever diplomatic steps it may take silently, Chinese may have to surrender to its local mass revolt and stop its secret damages it is doing to itself and the world at large.