Afghanistan's Electoral Destiny

The election process in Afghanistan is going to face many dangers. Successfully Karzai completed one term as the head of the nation without much troubles. But this election will test his strength definitely.

The Times of India writes (20 August 2009)

Things are hotting up in Afghanistan with rocket attacks launched by the Taliban on the presidential palace and police headquarters in Kabul, the
return of one of the erstwhile Northern Alliance's most dangerous warlords -Abdul Rashid Dostum, and frenzied rallies as the presidential candidates approach the business end of their campaigns.

The novelty of the democratic process that had lent a sheen to the 2004 presidential elections and 2005 parliamentary and provincial elections may have worn off. Ground realities about the system's functioning and its interaction with existing power structures have had time to set in. Nevertheless, given Afghanistan's long history of civil war, it's encouraging that political competition is being redirected towards the ballot box rather than playing out through gunfire and bomb blasts.

As importantly, these will be the first elections to be managed entirely by Afghan authorities without UN support. Considered together, these factors illuminate how important this election is as a referendum on Afghanistan's future course. Unfortunately, there are several worrying trends on display.

The first, of course, is the ineffectuality of Hamid Karzai's government to date. Its writ does not run beyond Kabul. The Taliban's domination of the south has made it a virtual no-go zone. There are allegations of corruption dogging the administration with Karzai's younger half-brother, Ahmad Wali Karzai, suspected of being involved in drug trafficking. Karzai's co-option of former warlords to retain popular support is troubling as well. The latest of these is Dostum, allowed back from exile in Turkey. He may be able to deliver the crucial Uzbek vote to Karzai but the price might be more than Afghanistan can afford.

But not all indicators are negative. Reconstruction efforts, India's and others', have paid dividends. And the democratic system that has been instituted has enough popular support that bogeymen from the country's past now find themselves compelled to work within it.

Democracy, like Rome, can't be built in a day, but it's the only long-term vaccine that can deliver Afghanistan from instability and chaos. The presence of US and International Security Assistance Force troops is a crucial factor here, and the international community must stay put if Afghanistan isn't to become a breeding ground for terror, both for its own citizens and for the world, once again. Many of Afghanistan's present problems, in fact, can be traced to wavering US commitment during the Bush administration, when it had been more focused on Iraq.