Erratic Monsoon and Everyone's Woes

The monsoon had betrayed one and all this year. With the scanty rainfall farmers are letdown and the government is keeping its fingers crossed. Although the signals were available about the deceptive monsoon, the union government was waiting for the last minute to act. Now it is high time to put an emergency plan to solve the drought around the country.

Better late than never, the prime minister last week called for Centre-state cooperation on tackling the deficient monsoon. But why did the
authorities wait for the rain gods to smile for so long that the kharif sowing window had to almost close before mitigation strategies were even broached? June's 46 per cent rainfall deficit wasn't made up by July's below-normal showing. Alarms were rung about drought conditions if the trend continued. Yet wait-and-watch seemed the only notable official response. Now that India's weathermen have slashed rainfall estimates and the finance minister warns of a severe dry spell, talk of fast-tracking rabi season preparations won't console affected farmers.

Official statements on 'need-based' action - central assistance to affected states, subsidised diesel to farmers and the like - have so far been marked by ad-hocism. Moreover, the Centre has woken up belatedly to the need to deliver rural job guarantee to shore up rural incomes. Gearing the employment scheme to contingency-related needs shouldn't have been left to the eleventh hour. Again, buffer stocks are healthy but, given the PDS's warts, ensuring waste-free storage and leak-proof distribution is easier said than done. With lower acreage spiking inflationary expectations, already high food prices can soar. While price-fixing and export bans are standard responses, intelligent use of buffer stocks, imports and zero tolerance for black marketers will serve as better price stabilisers.

India must buck up on exploiting healthy monsoons and reading drought signals. Experts recommend region-specific agro-climatic weather codes precisely for such purposes. Years of good rains create a false sense of security despite monsoons showing an inconsistent and a depleting trend over the years. Since India's water demand is estimated to outpace supply by 2020, water management is crucial. Population pressures will mandate ever-larger outputs of water-intensive crops like rice and wheat, causing massive groundwater loss. Water harvesting, storage and recycling must be prioritised starting now, and industries discouraged from extracting groundwater and incentivised to save water and invest in sewage treatment.

The majority of India's population lives off agriculture. Yet the farm sector hasn't seen the reform, investment and technology-driven modernisation it needs to reduce its rain-dependence. State paternalism as manifested in loan waivers or waste-generating power subsidies can't substitute for expanded, modern irrigation of the kind found in China, Israel or Australia, or a decentralised network of warehouses and cold chains. There's need for retail reform, creating access to markets where farmers can sell their produce to the best buyers, domestic or foreign. Finally, even a slowdown-trimmed 7 per cent growth forecast this fiscal may not materialise if farm output takes a major hit. The broader lesson is that agriculture must achieve its true potential if India is to maintain a high growth trajectory.