Bypoll results are not an indicator

Recently concluded bypolls in 49 assembly constituencies are not an national level indicator. If we go by this results the Congress gets red signal. But the actual case is not that. The local factors play an important role in the bypolls.

The Times of India writes (21 September 2009)


The results of byelections held since August in 49 assembly constituencies spread across 12 states must serve as a wake-up call for the Congress.
Despite the crisis in the BJP, it has fared reasonably well and has won more seats than the Congress. While the Congress lost seven of the seats it held among the 49 that went to polls, the BJP tally went up by five.

What explains the Congress reverses, coming four months after its remarkable success in the general elections? The political dynamic of a general election and assembly polls, particularly byelections, is very different. Local factors development record of the administration, selection of candidates etc influence byelection outcomes more than national issues. Yet, the reverses suffered by the Congress in Delhi, UP and Gujarat and the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar were unexpected and, in many ways, instructive. Clearly, these parties failed to read the mood of the voters correctly and underestimated the ability of their rivals to regroup after the general election defeat. The JD(U), in particular, was impervious to the logic of its past electoral success. People supported the party because it promised to shift the paradigm of Bihar politics from the cynical identity management games conducted by Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) to matters of governance. Many of the JD(U) candidates who lost were RJD turncoats who had moved over to JD(U) after the general election. However, the BJP Nitish's ally in Bihar managed to retain its three seats.

The results are also a reflection of the organisational capabilities of the Congress and the BJP. The Congress was successful in projecting a united and credible leadership at the Centre while the BJP's central leadership appeared to be a confused and divided lot. This influenced the general election results. However, the picture is different in the states. Despite the ideological confusion at the top, the BJP doesn't appear to have lost ground in its strongholds. The success in Gujarat where the party won seats from the Congress and Madhya Pradesh indicates that its organisational clout has not suffered. In contrast, the Congress is yet to rebuild its organisation in states like Gujarat and UP. The party failed to win a single seat in UP where it had done reasonably well in the general election. In the absence of a well-oiled party organisation, it is difficult to sustain electoral success. And, that's what helped the BSP to bounce back in UP.

The big battle will be fought in Maharashtra and Haryana, two states that have Congress governments, where elections are due. Congress can't afford a repeat of the byelections in these two strongholds.