Good Seasonal Fortune for Congress

Almost all political parties make strategies. Congress party's strategies plus silence have paid rich electoral dividends in the just concluded bye-elections. A disarrayed opposition especially the BJP has given a solid growth for the Congress. Left front is fastly getting wiped out in its bastion Bengal. Kerala gives verdict to Left and Congress alternatively. Naturally the next turn is for Congress. The most surprising outcome is for the BSP. The statue saddened state had given good number seats to the self-glorifying Behenji.

The Times of India writes (11 November 2009)

There is reason for the Congress-led UPA to feel happy about the bypoll results declared on Tuesday. The alliance has done well in West Bengal
and Kerala and has wrested the important Firozabad Lok Sabha seat in UP from the Samajwadi Party. Its performance in other states is a mixed bag. But the Congress and its allies can take satisfaction that the BJP hasn't made any notable progress even in its strongholds like Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh.

A standout feature of the current round of elections is the decimation of the Left Front in the two states where it holds office. The LF has lost all but one of the 13 constituencies in West Bengal and Kerala that went to polls last week. Most of these seats previously had Congress or Trinamul Congress MLAs and, hence, the front may claim that the results don't reflect a trend. Nevertheless, the LF has not been able to get its act together since the humiliating loss in the 2009 Parliament elections. The UPA almost swept both states then and has since maintained the trend. What must hurt the Left most is the defeat in Kannur in Kerala and Belgachia East in West Bengal. Trinamul won Belgachia East, the pocketborough of late CPM stalwart Subash Chakraborty, defeating his widow Ramola. In Kannur, a former CPM MP Abdullakutty defeated CPM heavyweight M V Jayarajan. Abdullakutty, who won the Kannur Lok Sabha seat for the CPM twice, was expelled from the party ahead of the Parliament elections in May and had joined the Congress. Though the Kannur assembly seat is a Congress stronghold, his success is likely to impact political undercurrents in this volatile region. Left leaders, however, were reconciled to a possible rout in Bengal and ran a low-key campaign. Clearly, the signs are ominous for the LF as the two states are set to face assembly polls in 2011.

A contrast to the Left's predicament is the remarkable performance of the BSP in UP. The party fared badly in the 2009 Parliament elections, but has recovered well to justify its success in the 2007 assembly elections. It has bucked anti-incumbency and the Congress's attempt to rebuild its base and has won a majority of the byelections since the Lok Sabha polls in May. The Congress may have re-emerged as an option in a Lok Sabha election, but seems to lack organisational network and grassroots leaders to take on regional players like the BSP and the SP in assembly contests.

The BJP's stock has slipped further in UP. Not only has it failed to put up a fight in the bypolls, the party even lost its sitting Lucknow West seat to the Congress. With the state unit in disarray and the central leadership clueless about the way forward, the BJP has a lot to worry about. Its predicament is remarkably similar to that of the CPM.

Divorce the immoral wife

The marriage between the Left and Congress is on turmoil. From the day one of the marriage proposal, it sounded as an inconvenient wedlock. Still Dr. Manmohan Singh, Sonia Gandhi and their Grand Old Party managed to lead a life. They postured in public decently and did not reveal the internal disruptions in the married life. After three and half years of this turbulent marriage, the greatest of all errors has occurred. An illicit affair of the Left with the opponents of the Congress is coming to the surface. Hob nobbing of the Left with Samajwadi Party, Telugu Desam, Indian National Lok Dal and Asom Gana Parsihad clearly states the dirty moral life lead by the Left. Although this may be politically correct for the Left’s future it violates the coalition dharma. Only for this kind of double standard life, the Left had opted for the support to the UPA government from outside. Calling the Prime Minister and his policies as futile and debunking all the programmes as anti people, the Left is in fact expressing in public about the fault lines in the marriage. The blame is put on the wrong side. Despite enjoying all the benefits of the marriage the Left is violating the minimum level of marital responsibility. Now it is high time for the Congress to divorce the Left and go for fresh elections. The Congress came close to this stage few weeks back. Sonia Gandhi’s public condemnation of the Left at a rally in Jhajhar after unveiling a power station gave the lead to the divorce. But the murmurs expressed by the allies of Congress like NCP, RJD and DMK stopped the break up in the UPA relations.

The Insurance Regulatory Authority Bill, SEZs, Foreign Universities Bill, Forests Act, the Indo US Nuclear Deal and almost all the constructive proposals mooted and put forward by the UPA government were blocked by the Left. While opposing these legal constitutional provisions and external collaborations at the pretext of the national interests, the Left had next government formation at its back of the mind. In every breadth of its opposition an image was created that the Left stands for the safeguard of Indian sovereignty. But the past record of the Communists does not have an inch of sovereignty safeguard credibility. It is the same old political force that opposed India’s freedom, supported Chinese aggression in the 60s and stood on the way to the nation’s march to modernity. After a complete public rebuttal in most parts of the country for its anti-development and anti-modern attitude of the Left it was lying low for few years. Now with the young and aggressive leaders in the forefront, the red shirt warriors are once again masquerading as the pro India development politicians.

It is the high time for Congress to take stock of the situation. An overall analysis of the coalition partners and their crucial role tells two important factors at this stage. The Congress is trying to cobble a coalition where the majority of the leaders have Prime Ministerial ambitions. This was expressed both directly and indirectly by the supporting heads of the parties. It is an open secret that Sharad Pawar and Lalu Prasad Yadav the regional leaders from states with big numbers of MPs have P.M chair occupying dreams. The DMK patriarch is nursing this dream as a closed secret after G.K. Moopanar’s very close reach to the P.M chair in 2006. The successful P.M crowning of Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujaral have sowed the P.M dream seeds in the minds of few numbers holding party leaders in the parliament. “Anything is possible” stage had arrived in the Indian central politics in the post liberalization phase. With this kind of immoral and backstabbing opportunists Congress cannot have a future. Either it will be permanently made as a dependable party on the regional forces to run a government at the centre or it will be wiped out as the pan Indian political entity. Currently the major parliamentary seats holding states are out of the Congress hands. Uttar Pradesh (80), Bihar (50), Maharashtra (48), West Bengal (42) and Tamil Nadu (39) tell us the inability of the Congress to work out permanent solutions to its problems. It is dependent on its allies for a sizeable share in these major states. With the miraculous victory of BSP in U.P assembly elections a new headache has started for the grand old party. Mayawati has vowed to introduce her victorious U.P experiment in other states. Even if she managed to win 20 parliamentary seats outside U.P the Congress will face a historical challenge to its political existence.

To take the party ship out of this perennial cyclone, the Congress should work out few long term fixations. It is not just enough to shout slogans like “Hamara hath aam aadmi ki saath”. The first step in this direction is to get rid of its sycophancy culture in the party management. There is a feeling of isolation among the hard working cadres and workers with strong ideological roots. A complete objective handling of the party is a must. The present party managers are too hierarchical and suspended from the ground realities. As long as this trend continues there is no hope for the Congress to come to the central power on its own.