Erratic Monsoon and Everyone's Woes

The monsoon had betrayed one and all this year. With the scanty rainfall farmers are letdown and the government is keeping its fingers crossed. Although the signals were available about the deceptive monsoon, the union government was waiting for the last minute to act. Now it is high time to put an emergency plan to solve the drought around the country.

Better late than never, the prime minister last week called for Centre-state cooperation on tackling the deficient monsoon. But why did the
authorities wait for the rain gods to smile for so long that the kharif sowing window had to almost close before mitigation strategies were even broached? June's 46 per cent rainfall deficit wasn't made up by July's below-normal showing. Alarms were rung about drought conditions if the trend continued. Yet wait-and-watch seemed the only notable official response. Now that India's weathermen have slashed rainfall estimates and the finance minister warns of a severe dry spell, talk of fast-tracking rabi season preparations won't console affected farmers.

Official statements on 'need-based' action - central assistance to affected states, subsidised diesel to farmers and the like - have so far been marked by ad-hocism. Moreover, the Centre has woken up belatedly to the need to deliver rural job guarantee to shore up rural incomes. Gearing the employment scheme to contingency-related needs shouldn't have been left to the eleventh hour. Again, buffer stocks are healthy but, given the PDS's warts, ensuring waste-free storage and leak-proof distribution is easier said than done. With lower acreage spiking inflationary expectations, already high food prices can soar. While price-fixing and export bans are standard responses, intelligent use of buffer stocks, imports and zero tolerance for black marketers will serve as better price stabilisers.

India must buck up on exploiting healthy monsoons and reading drought signals. Experts recommend region-specific agro-climatic weather codes precisely for such purposes. Years of good rains create a false sense of security despite monsoons showing an inconsistent and a depleting trend over the years. Since India's water demand is estimated to outpace supply by 2020, water management is crucial. Population pressures will mandate ever-larger outputs of water-intensive crops like rice and wheat, causing massive groundwater loss. Water harvesting, storage and recycling must be prioritised starting now, and industries discouraged from extracting groundwater and incentivised to save water and invest in sewage treatment.

The majority of India's population lives off agriculture. Yet the farm sector hasn't seen the reform, investment and technology-driven modernisation it needs to reduce its rain-dependence. State paternalism as manifested in loan waivers or waste-generating power subsidies can't substitute for expanded, modern irrigation of the kind found in China, Israel or Australia, or a decentralised network of warehouses and cold chains. There's need for retail reform, creating access to markets where farmers can sell their produce to the best buyers, domestic or foreign. Finally, even a slowdown-trimmed 7 per cent growth forecast this fiscal may not materialise if farm output takes a major hit. The broader lesson is that agriculture must achieve its true potential if India is to maintain a high growth trajectory.

Deceived Monsoon

No monsoon so far is a bad news for all. The urbanites reeling under horrible heat and the rural farmers worried about the kharif crops, it is really bad time for all in India.

The Times of India says (25 June 2009)

The monsoon is part of India's problems this year instead of being a solution to its economic woes. The weatherman on Wednesday lowered Farmers open a sack of fertilizers on a dry piece of land on the outskirts of Amritsar.(AP Photo)
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the prediction for the 2009 monsoon, saying that India would get only 93% of the normal rainfall of 89 cm during these months.

More worryingly, the Met department predicted that the grain bank of the country - north-west India, including Punjab and Haryana - would suffer the most, getting only 81% of the long-term average for the region.

Considering that the regional prediction levels have an error level of 8%, rain in north-west India could be as low as 73% of the normal amount, leading to a major drought in the region.

This is a significant "correction" from the IMD's mid-April statement predicting "near normal" 96% rainfall in the country.

Holding a press conference on Wednesday, earth sciences minister Prithviraj Chavan accepted that the situation was worrisome but claimed that the worst was over and July and August would see the monsoon picking up in many parts of the country. Up to June 24, the country had received only 53% of the normal rain, with central India being the worst sufferer, getting only 25% of its normal quota.

While the government shied away from declaring an emergency of any kind, the minister said the cabinet secretary was keeping daily tabs on the situation and other ministries would react to the situation as it developed.

Such low levels of a predicted monsoon were last seen in 2004 when the country suffered a serious drought and the IMD had missed the signals early enough to put out a warning.

IMD officials admitted that the chances of this being an El Nino year were as high as 60%. El Nino is a weather condition in the Pacific Ocean that leads to lower monsoon rains in India. D S Pai, director of the National Climate Centre of the IMD said that 29 of the 36 El Nino years between 1875 and 2008 had seen less than normal rain. Of these, in as many as 15 years there was more than a 10% deficit in rainfall.

Pai said El Nino could pick up in July and the lowering of the monsoon estimation showed its initial impact. But it would have to be monitored in order to gauge how badly it would hit the monsoons in the coming months. Scientists suggested that the timing of when the EL Nino effect matures would decide the fate of the monsoon.

If the weather anomaly develops early, and in the central Pacific, the chances of a bad monsoon would be very high, they said. Scientists will be closely looking out for signs of this happening in the days to come. Pai also pointed out that the cyclonic storm earlier in May had stolen the thunder from the monsoon in June. While the minister was at pains to defend the figures, saying they were what science was able to predict at the moment, the regional figures released as scheduled on Wednesday increased concerns that some pockets of India may suffer a near-drought situation even if other pockets get rains.

Mumbai - A City of Miseries

Havoc caused by rain, violence webbed by mad politics, bomb blasts in trains, gun battles in hotels, terrorist attacks in temples – disasters created by nature and men continue to devastate Mumbaikars. The public sphere which is supposed to put things in proper shape is totally deshaped. Everyone tries to score political points. There is no differentiation of tragedies. Even in the bomb blast spots, politicians and media drive their own agenda rather than addressing the grievances of the victims.

Whenever the monsoon strikes Mumbai and the rain puts the people in trouble, there is a sign of helplessness. The city gets paralysed totally. What are the business magnets and Bollywood stars doing? In case the government is not doing enough the bigwigs should come forward to build their city to the comfort of common men and women. Those who have money can fly in helicopter and land their own terrace. But what about those poor people without basic means for survival? They are the good catchments during elections. How many times this monsoon menance is troubling the people? Every time the politicians and business class promise to mend the fences and make the city fit. But that remains as the paper promise. Till the rain strikes again everyone forgets. The option for the common people is to change the bad ones in power. The alternative is worst. The choice is between the devil and the deep sea. In between the people of Mumbai suffer infinitely and undergo nightmare every day of their lives.

Adding fire to the fuel is regional chauvinism spearheaded by a mad man calling himself as politician. His uncle did the same trick four decades ago and captured power. This encourages him to test the same formula again and puts the people of Mumbai to untold misery. No government wants to touch him fearing backlash. Can we call them in spineless power holders? Both the state and central governments play cat and mouse game over the arrest and release of MNS chief. The activists get emboldedened because of the power of the politics which can get them out of jail. This lawlessness and no fear strengthen the regional chauvinists and put the city is trouble forever.

More sadly, Mumbai is the frequent target of terrorists. Its value as the commercial heartbeat of India encourages terrorists to bomb often. They don’t differentiate between children and women, elderly and sick people. Without discriminating people, without seeing their religion, region, caste, creed, terrorists kill innocent lives. In the last twenty years Mumbai lost 20,000 lives to violence created by men. There is another 20,000 killed by the fury of nature.

The city Mayor seems to be dead. The local administration is the puppet in the hands of state and central politics. Without a bit of vision to protect the city and its people, the Mumbai corporation members are sleeping. Whenever there is a tragedy happens in any city, we can find its Mayor talking. In Mumbai, none from the corporation comes forward to console people. There is a decentralization of power despite name sake local administration. The local administrators are engrossed in power politics and waiting to bid their chance for assembly elections.

The multiple wounds created by many players totally destroy the cosmopolitan beauty of Mumbai. Once it was known for the broadminded spirit of its citizens, cool life with hard work as its trademark. Today Mumbai is pitied as the city of miseries. Many irresponsible people are manning the city and bringing down the glory of the golden past city. Till a group of people or an individual comes out to safeguard the charm of Mumbai it will continue to consume bomb blasts, gun battles, monsoon troubles, regional chauvinism and petty politics.